Pacific Link: A Win on Paper, Not Steel

Oct 1

5 min read

Pacific Link: A Win on Paper, Not Steel - Alberta Radio

Ottawa just put Alberta's West Coast pipeline on the fast track, 18 days before Albertans vote on their future. Take the win. Just don't confuse a federal list with a pipeline.

By Jason LaFace | Alberta Radio

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Let's give credit where it's due. For a decade Albertans have been told to sit down and wait while our oil sold at a discount to one customer. This morning in Fort McMurray, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith announced that the West Coast oil pipeline, now called Pacific Link, is the first project ever listed as being in the national interest under the Building Canada Act. Pembina Pipeline CEO Scott Burrows stood beside them.

Premier Smith called it "a significant victory for Alberta's and Canada's energy future." On egress, she has a point. Now let's look at the fine print.

What was actually announced

Pacific Link would run roughly 1,250 km from Bruderheim, northeast of Edmonton, to the Roberts Bank area south of Vancouver, mostly along the existing Trans Mountain corridor. It would move up to one million barrels a day, more than the expanded Trans Mountain's 890,000. Alberta puts the construction cost at $35.2 billion to $43.7 billion.

Ottawa promises 140,000 jobs, more than $20 billion a year in GDP and $100 billion in government revenue by 2060. The Western Standard reports Alberta figures the line could bring in up to about $265 billion in royalties over its life. Industry is happy about it. Financial Post notes that the last Trans Mountain open season was almost six times oversubscribed. Producers want to ship west.

A designation is not a shovel

Here's the catch: nothing has been approved for construction. The listing starts a one-year clock. The new Major Projects Office, backed by the Canada Energy Regulator, now has to write a "conditions document" covering ownership, Indigenous rights, environmental protections, local hiring and oversight. The goal is to finish it by September 1, 2027. Only then could shovels go in the ground.

Even Pierre Poilievre, who backs the pipeline, said it plainly: "We need a pipeline in the ground, not just on a list." EY Canada's Lance Mortlock told iPolitics the designation "improves certainty," but it doesn't remove the commercial risk.

Who owns it? Mostly Ottawa and the government

This isn't a private pipeline. Canada and Alberta would each own about 45 per cent through Crown corporations. Trans Mountain Corporation, which is federal, will develop, build and operate it. Pembina is the only private company involved, and it has signed a non-binding deal to take about 10 per cent, with an option to double that once the line is running. Indigenous communities will be offered at least 10 per cent, financed through federal and provincial loan guarantees.

Remember when we were told taxpayers wouldn't carry the load? According to iPolitics, officials estimate the early studies and consultations alone will cost $4 billion, paid by Ottawa and Alberta. If the project stalls because oil companies don't sign up or a court blocks it, taxpayers eat that money. When reporters asked how much federal money is on the line, the Prime Minister didn't give a number. He said only that "the Canadian taxpayer is going to make a lot of money off this pipeline." Maybe so. But that's a promise, not a price tag.

The tanker ban stays

The North Coast tanker ban, which Smith has called one of Ottawa's "bad laws," stays in place. Pacific Link goes south to Roberts Bank because B.C. would only accept that route, and the federal government agreed. So the deal is a pipeline to the one coast Ottawa allows, owned largely by Ottawa, on Ottawa's schedule. Call it a breakthrough if you want, but Ottawa set every term.

The legal fight is already starting

The Prime Minister's Office says the Major Projects Office consulted more than 130 Indigenous communities. Ottawa's own explanatory note admits that "the majority of Indigenous communities were not prepared to support project listing based on the information available."

The Coldwater Indian Band near Merritt says it is considering "court, or other, action." It says it spent two of the three consultation months under wildfire evacuation orders or alerts, and that its requests for more time went unanswered. "The Crown's duty to consult and accommodate Coldwater remains unfilled," said Vice-Chief Michael Smithers. The Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs, which has opposed the line from the start, is talking about the courts and "boots on the ground." The federal NDP and the Bloc came out against it. NDP Leader Avi Lewis called it "a gift to an oil industry." Business groups, including the Business Council of Alberta, support it.

Albertans have seen this before. Northern Gateway was approved and then killed, and Trans Mountain was tied up in court for years. The fast track only matters if it holds up in court.

Funny timing

Alberta votes on October 19, 18 days from now. Question 10 asks whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or start the constitutional legal process toward a binding independence referendum. Smith is campaigning for "remain." Janet Brown's latest poll for CBC found 53 per cent of UCP supporters back Option 2, while 72 per cent of Albertans overall want to stay. Today also happened to be the day Alberta's 13-cent-a-litre fuel-tax holiday took effect, running to December 31.

Maybe the timing is a coincidence. I don't think Albertans are that naive.

One pipeline doesn't fix the relationship

The independence supporters quoted by the Western Standard today put it best: one pipeline does not address the underlying problems. It does nothing about equalization. It doesn't repeal the tanker ban. It doesn't limit Ottawa's habit of telling Alberta what it may build, sell and earn. It doesn't even guarantee this pipeline gets built. What it does show is that when Alberta pushes hard, Ottawa moves. Albertans should keep that in mind on October 19.

Take the win. Then hold everyone to it. Watch for real shipper commitments, real costs, real court decisions and steel in the ground by September 2027. Until then, Pacific Link is a promise.

Sources

Stay with Alberta Radio for the news and the commentary Ottawa would rather you skipped. Visit www.albertaradio.ca.