OPINION: Calgary-Shaw Just Sent the UCP a Warning — Conservatives Should Listen
By Jason LaFace,
Editor, Alberta Radio
Calgary-Shaw just delivered a political earthquake that Alberta conservatives would be foolish to dismiss.
In Monday’s by-election, Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry in what has historically been one of Calgary’s more reliable conservative constituencies.
The final unofficial tally has Campbell at 7,461 votes and Derry at 6,879 — a difference of just 582 votes.
For the NDP, it is unquestionably a victory.
For the UCP, it should be a wake-up call.
And for libertarian-minded conservatives who believe in limited government, individual freedom, fiscal responsibility and keeping political power as close to Albertans as possible, the lesson should not be that Calgary suddenly embraced socialism.
The lesson is simpler:
Conservative votes cannot be taken for granted.
From Three Votes Ahead to 582 Votes Behind
What makes the result particularly remarkable is how dramatically the race changed as the count progressed.
With 47 of 71 polls reporting, Derry was reportedly ahead by just three votes.
By the time the unofficial count was completed, Campbell had won by 582.
That is an extraordinary swing in a riding the UCP should have been heavily motivated to defend.
Calgary-Shaw elected UCP candidates in both the 2019 and 2023 general elections. The NDP previously captured the riding during the 2015 orange wave, but it returned to the conservative column four years later.
Now it has flipped again.
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi wasted little time declaring that there are “no safe conservative seats in Calgary.”
Conservatives should resist the temptation to laugh that off.
He has a point.
The Conservative Vote Is No Longer a Monolith
There is another number worth examining.
Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph received 978 votes.
Liberal candidate John Roggeveen received another 602.
Together, that is 1,580 votes — nearly three times the NDP’s 582-vote margin of victory.
That does not mean those votes automatically belonged to the UCP. They did not. Voters are individuals, not property belonging to political parties, and nobody can know how those people would have voted in a two-candidate race.
But the numbers demonstrate something politically important: in an extremely close election, relatively small groups of dissatisfied or politically homeless voters can determine who represents the riding.
That should concern the UCP.
Conservatives sometimes talk about vote splitting as though voters have an obligation to support whichever party happens to carry the dominant conservative banner.
They don't.
Political parties have to earn votes.
If a government loses libertarians because it expands government, loses fiscal conservatives because spending continues climbing, loses populists because they feel ignored, or loses moderate conservatives because they dislike the government's direction, blaming those voters afterward solves nothing.
The job of a governing party is to persuade them to come back.
This Doesn't Necessarily Mean Calgary Is Turning Left
The NDP will understandably present Calgary-Shaw as evidence that political momentum is moving toward Nenshi.
Perhaps it is.
But one by-election does not establish a province-wide political realignment.
By-elections are unusual creatures. Turnout, candidate quality, local organization, protest voting and the willingness of government supporters to actually show up can produce results very different from a general election.
The UCP would therefore be equally wrong to panic and wrong to dismiss what happened.
Calgary-Shaw should be treated as data.
Something caused enough voters in a historically conservative constituency either to support the NDP, support another party, or simply not rally behind the UCP candidate.
The government should want to know why.
Conservatives Should Compete on Freedom
There is also a larger ideological question facing Alberta's conservative movement.
What exactly does “conservative” mean anymore?
If it means merely electing a different team to manage an increasingly powerful government, voters eventually notice.
A genuinely freedom-oriented government should be asking how it can reduce unnecessary regulation, lower barriers for entrepreneurs, protect property rights, defend freedom of expression, restrain government spending, keep taxes competitive and return decision-making power to individuals, families and communities.
Albertans should not have to choose between a progressive government that openly believes government should do more and a conservative government that occasionally ends up doing much the same thing more slowly.
The alternative to the NDP should not simply be “government, but with blue signs.”
It should be a fundamentally different philosophy of government.
Danielle Smith Did the Right Thing After the Result
Premier Danielle Smith congratulated Campbell following his victory.
That's how democracy is supposed to work.
You fight hard during the campaign, voters make their decision, and politicians respect the result.
Campbell will now have the responsibility of representing everyone in Calgary-Shaw — including the thousands who voted against him.
Likewise, the UCP now has the responsibility of deciding whether this defeat was an isolated by-election upset or evidence of something deeper.
Ignoring it would be a mistake.
Nenshi Has Earned His Headline — For Now
Nenshi wanted a breakthrough in Calgary.
He got one.
The NDP took a seat from the governing party in conservative territory, and no amount of partisan spin changes that fact.
But Nenshi's declaration that there are no safe conservative seats cuts both ways.
There shouldn't be safe seats for anybody.
Safe seats encourage complacency.
Politicians should have to fight for every vote, defend their records and convince citizens that they deserve another term.
That's democracy. In fact, conservatives should embrace that principle.
No MLA owns a constituency.
No party owns Alberta.
The voters do.
The Bigger Warning for the UCP
The danger for the UCP isn't necessarily that thousands of Calgary conservatives suddenly became committed New Democrats overnight.
The greater danger is that enough voters become disappointed, divided, disengaged or politically homeless that the NDP can win races the UCP once considered safe.
A 582-vote defeat demonstrates just how little separation can exist between government and opposition.
Every taxpayer who feels ignored matters.
Every small-business owner frustrated by bureaucracy matters.
Every libertarian who believes government has become too intrusive matters.
Every fiscal conservative wondering why government never seems to become smaller matters.
And every ordinary Albertan who thinks politicians have stopped listening matters.
Conservative governments cannot survive indefinitely by telling those people that the alternative is worse.
They must give them something worth voting for.
Calgary-Shaw has delivered that message.
Whether the UCP listens may matter far beyond one Calgary constituency.
The results remain unofficial until Elections Alberta's official announcement scheduled for September 24, 2026.
Alberta Radio
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